By the end of this programme, participants will:
- Analyze economic results and perform sensitivity analysis
- Evaluate investment profitability, considering fiscal terms, inflation, and financing
- Incorporate geological risk and uncertainty in project evaluations
- Develop advanced models for oil and gas project analysis
- Assess financial risks and decision-making in upstream projects
- Apply techniques for forecasting and managing project uncertainties
Day 1
Economic and Contractual Framework
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- Overview of the Exploration-Production phases
- Technical costs and the evolution of the economic environment
- Petroleum exploration and production contracts: Concessions, production sharing contracts, service contracts
- Economic rent sharing and flexibility in petroleum contracts
- Key economic clauses in contracts
Day 2
Investment Profitability Studies
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- Understanding cost of capital, discount rate, and value creation
- Key economic evaluation criteria:
- Net Present Value (NPV)
- Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
- Payback period
- Global profitability analysis and the impact of taxation and inflation
- Exploration and Production-specific methods: Shadow interest
- Case studies on investment profitability
Day 3
Introduction to Risk Analysis
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- Introduction to risk analysis and risk discount rate
- Sensitivity analysis and visualization tools: Spider and Tornado diagrams
- Impact of “ringfencing” and state participation on decision-making
- Case studies on risk analysis application in E&P projects
Day 4
Risk Analysis in Exploration and Production
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- Understanding the probability of success and economic risk in exploration
- Evaluation techniques for exploration projects and decision trees
- Analysis of Farm-in/Farm-out agreements
- Risked and unrisked economics
- Economic risk in marginal development projects
- Application of decision theory in decision-making
Day 5
Asset Management and Risk Analysis Integration
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- Components and determinants of asset valuation: Exploration, appraisal, development, and production
- Methodologies for asset valuation and probabilistic analysis
- Portfolio optimization and asset aggregation
- Tools for comparing expected results and budget efficiencies
- Contribution of risk analysis to successful exploration and project management
